Pew Research Center has released its latest report on the future of religious demographics, and it is time to analyze them.
Some time earlier, I wrote a post on whether or not atheism was taking over the world, and concluded that it “Atheism is simply dying”. Technically, we can generalize atheism here with the entire non-religious population. And in fact, I was entirely correct, according to the latest statistics from Pew Research, the irreligious global population is literally dying off. We will see that the competition of Christianity has nothing to do with the atheists and non-religious, the only religion in the world that will be competing with Christianity for global dominance is Islam.
So, let’s take a look at the facts.
In 2015, 33% of all births in the world were Christian, whereas 37% of all deaths were Christian. For Islam, it’s 31% and 21%, and we can see just how dauntingly bad it is for the non-religious segment of the world.
Only 10% of all people born in the world, are born to mothers without a religion. On the other hand, 15% of all deaths in the world are people without a religion. This means that the deaths of the non-religious outpace their births by a third, a rather very significant and large figure. And, it will only get worse. By 2050, only 9% of all people born in the world will be born to irreligious mothers, whereas 16% of all deaths (nearly double) will be of the irreligious world population. On the other hand, it will be much better for Christians in 2060. The births of Christians in the world will increase from 33% of the worlds births to 35% of the worlds births, whereas our deaths will plummet from 37% of the world deaths to only 31% of the world deaths.
Another thing you can see about the non-religious segment of the world population is that by 2060, their share of the global population will dwindle from 16% of the world to 13% of the world, making them more irrelevant than they already are on the global scale. Indeed, the only place in the world where they seem to be relevant is Europe, the northern part of North America (as in excluding Mexico), Australia, New Zealand, and portions of East-Asia. Everywhere else is dominated by religion, except for small exceptions here and there (like Uruguay, a country in South America).
In fact, growth of Christianity will outpace growth of the non-religious segment of the world population in the next 45 years by over 700,000,000.
So, the only real competitor is Islam. And indeed, it is a real competitor, mostly because Muslims usually have a crazy number of children. The first graph reveals that in 2015, Muslims make up 31% of all births and 21% of all deaths, and by 2050, they will make up 36% of all births (1% higher than Christians) and still only 25% of all deaths. Which means, if these predictions are correct, the number of Muslims will probably surpass the number of Christians in the world by around 2070. Just to note however, Pew does not take into account the high level of Christian conversion in Muslim countries such as Indonesia or Iran, but even if they did, it probably would not significantly affect the results in any way.
There are some positive results (aside from the death of atheism), however, which I will touch up upon in another post.